Fantasy Files: When to Pull the QB Trigger

I will chat about my local keeper league again. Want to know the rules? Check ’em out. Each team keeps three players and it’s one per position max. Unless I’m mistaken, I will be the only team not keeping a QB.

When should I pull the trigger? I finally made my A.J. Green trade which netted me a trade up from 4.07 to 3.02. I have picks 1.06, 2.07, 3.02 and 3.06. These are the key four picks in the draft. I’m keeping a RB (Mathews), a WR (Calvin) and a TE (Graham).

I went historical on my league but I do not have complete information. Usually one of our less drunk owners takes a picture of the draft board at the end because no one’s writing that shit down. Last year there was no picture. I don’t know when the first QB went although I think it was Matthew Stafford.

Looking back, I do not see data to support me waiting long to take a QB. In 2010 we had a full redraft and the first backup went in the 7th round. In 2009, the first QB was Matt Schaub with pick 2.07 and there were five QBs taken by 4.02. If I wait on QB, I might end up with a Josh Freeman/Carson Palmer QBBC. In 2007, Jon Kitna went 2.06. Alex Smith (ouch) and Jay Cutler went in the third.

Here’s the 2007 draft board because it’s fun to look back:

If I take a QB before anyone else, my best bet will be Philip Rivers. I could take Peyton but if I do, I’ll have to take someone like RGIII/Andrew Luck shortly thereafter because I have no faith on Peyton being keeper-worthy. It could be because I traded for him last year, waited forever to draft his backup because the Colts had a Week 11 bye and the news of Peyton’s demise was weeks away, and had to trade Beanie Wells for Kevin Kolb after the draft in desperation.

So what’s the shark move? If I take Rivers in the second, I might lose out on the great wideouts although there are going to be a ton of them. If I wait for 3.02 and someone else takes him, do I take Peyton? Or do I end up with a QBBC of something like RGIII/Matt Schaub? I’m glad I have four weeks to work this out.

Here’s a bonus picture of the 2007 draft. Yes, we had an owner who took the Adrian Peterson of Chicago by mistake and it was an agonizing five-minute wait as we decided to give him the Minnesota one.

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