After a brief snafu, I joined one of Ryan McDowell’s dynasty startup drafts. He does a bunch of them every month and kindly sacrificed one of his slots to get me in. I had the two slot.
I’ve been listening to a few dynasty-themed podcasts, the UTH, Faked Goods, and the DLF podcast, so I wondered how I’d do firing fake draft bullets. I didn’t have a “strategy” going in but once I made my second and third-round picks, it was obvious the direction I was heading.
Shawn Siegele is my sensei here. Now he’s more of a high-stakes guy, so I wondered how his Zero RB theory would work in a dynasty startup. I’m finding out. I had the 2 slot, which meant a ton of waiting between picks and I had to somewhat ignore ADP, plus I didn’t have much ADP to go by. I’ll post the picks here and commentary below
1.02: Dez Bryant
2.11: Sammy Watkins
3.02: Mike Evans
4.11: Bishop Sankey
5.02: Kendall Wright
6.11: Davante Adams
7.02: Lamar Miller
8.11: Allen Robinson
9.02: Stevan Ridley
10.11: Charles Clay
11.02: Khiry Robinson
12.11: Jay Cutler
13.02: Knile Davis
14.11: Marquess Wilson
15.02: Stedman Bailey
16.11: Garrett Graham
17.02: Latavius Murray
I started with five out of six WR picks. Ryan took Dez at 1.02 before bequeathing me the team. A.J. Green went #1 overall. I’m not sure if I would have taken Calvin, Demaryius, Jimmy G or Dez there. There’s not a ton of downside to the pick.
Four rookie wideouts and a rookie RB. Am I drinking crazy juice? I decided to lean young, and I listened to what Mr. Veatch and Mr. Parsons said in their podcast recently. You can get almost the entire 2014 first round of a rookie draft in a startup. I missed on Jordan Matthews, and between my 7th and 8th-round picks Cody Latimer and Donte Moncrief went.
Sammy Watkins: I took him over Mike Evans even though I like Evans better because of ADP. I got both and when it felt strange, like a teenager drinking that first wine cooler, I knew that I was on the right path. Sankey’s ADP seemed higher than the pick, although it means squat if you get an ADP “value” when the player “sucks”. I don’t know about Sankey but he’s the only RB with a clear year one path to playing time. The Titans are putting together a strong OL. Wright doesn’t give you that TD upside that the kids are talking about but he’s pretty sure to catch five balls a week. Davante Adams and Allen Robinson are two mid-round lottery tickets who could be in that Dez/Demaryius/Alshon tier in a couple of years. Lamar Miller is still really young, not yet 23, and I have high hopes for this new Miami offense, assuming the offensive line gets it together.
Boy, when you get to the 9th round you are circling the drain with RB talent. You either go with the rookies or obvious backups or take a veteran who may need his second team to break through, and that doesn’t happen often. I went with Stevan Ridley because he has double-digit potential, it’s just about the fumbles. There was a minor Twitter snit over the potential of the Pats to cut him, based on nothing much mores than old-fashioned Internet bluster.
I really stuck to my guns with the “onsie” positions. I was going to stick with my rookie-crazy ways until I saw Charles Clay on the board in the 10th round. Clay was a crazy man in college, with 2544 career receiving yards, and 911 rushing yards in school. He switched between FB and TE in the NFL and the injury to free-agent big money guy Dustin Keller gave Clay his big shot. He was a streamer’s dream, and even had a rushing TD. He was the 16th TD off the board and this is his 25-year-old season.
Again I passed on some gorgeous rookies to take Khiry Robinson at pick 11.02. I have not consolidated my RB position in any attempt to “lock down” a backfield. I’ve been taking young, talented players who could earn a lion’s share of a running game, the best that you can do according to Christopher Cross.
My “pretty rookie” team would have been complete had Johnny Football fallen to my 12.11 pick. I doubt he’d fall that far in a normal startup draft. I had to take my second choice, Jay Cutler, QB17. The Bears QB was a top-five spot last year and he can’t be injury-prone forever, right? When he plays, he’s starter-quality and I didn’t break the bank.
Pick 13.02 is another backup-caliber RB, Knile Davis, who fumbles a lot or gets hurt a lot. Jamaal Charles sure gets a lot of carries and the Chiefs finally have a decent backup RB. Why not.
Marquess Wilson should move up from my WR8 to WR6 by 2017, great buy there. Stedman Bailey could be the Rams’ WR1 by the end of the year or he could be in Justin Blackmon land. Garrett Graham was another cheap TE pick. He’s 28, not a spring chicken, but should put up Owen Daniels-esque numbers for two or three years. I still believe in Latavius Murray.
With three picks to go, I have four players with more than three years of NFL experience, and one of them’s Jay Cutler. I almost wish I could have this team in real life.