Fantasy Files: Game in the Skin

You have to be a little crazy this time of year. We are all anticipating the football season like people who enjoy football a little too much. There’s nothing like those 16 Sundays (Week 17 kind of sucks, as does Thursday night, and Monday always feels like a tacked-on thing.

Will 2015 be different? I have a few ideas how this could be.

There’s a rumbling, and it’s not because of that bean burrito: Daily fantasy is going to engulf the industry. I’ve already said that the contrarian play is to get into high-stakes redraft leagues because so many people are abandoning them this week to focus on DFS. I joined a league that Brian started a few weeks ago and almost the entire league would have abandoned the thing had he not changed it to best ball. That’s why people love the MFL10 concept. You get the drafting experience and with money involved it feels more real than the various mocks I’ve tried. Actually I wouldn’t know what’s real. I’m living vicariously through my Twitter friends who might have a problem with frequent leagues. I’d need more than a spreadsheet to keep track with dozens of leagues, even in best-ball formats. And the weekly emails, I can’t even handle the idea.

What’s the half-life of a Twitter thread regarding one player or one idea? The best part of Twitter getting in a tizzy over a player, one post or concept is that it’s never long lived. Occasionally, though, it becomes a bit more. Joseph Randle came up, and it was universally accepted that while his ADP had gotten “out of control”, if he was indeed the clear lead back in Dallas, the price might be on point. Nobody believes that he’s going to be the lead back or that he’s close to the talent that DeMarco Murray is. But the shiny, candy-like button of recency bias is so distracting. Not only was the Dallas offensive line incredibly good last year, it was incredibly lucky with virtually no injury concerns. The team even stocked up in the draft, but if one starter gets hurt and that’s just about impossible to avoid for five starters, things might not run so smoothly.

Randle first-round

The whole thing will end in tears as there was a tattoo bet.

tattoo bet

Will J.J. request his pound of flesh, or ounces of ink, when the year is over? It’s Twitter, and Twitter never forgets.

What will you do for a Klondike Bar, or a year of unlimited fantasy content? I’ve been avoiding things that cost money, what with my job-free lifestyle at the moment. I saw the annual Football Guys early-bird special for their “Insider Pro” subscription come and go. I went without last year and skated by with my other three subscriptions that I’ve guilted out of other sites due to many interviews. There was a secondary opportunity. FBG sent out messages saying that if you agreed to be a reader of their upcoming DFS e-books and sent in useful commentary, you’d get a subscription for free. This might not have been the cost-effective way to go, but I was interested in the site stepping up their DFS coverage and I have published two ebooks. No, I really have.

There will be books for DraftKings and FanDuel. I’m sure there will be overlap with the content because there is a lot of strategy involved. I wondered if it would be challenging to write these books trying to hit the beginner to intermediate audiences, and even the pros might want to take a look. The one I read was great and I’ll go back to it if I do decide to make a moderate investment in DFS this year. The question is will the competition go through the roof this year. I still think most “casual” players do the league through work and may listen to Matthew Berry and some of that crowd will slide into DFS. Just like when magazines transitioned into Web sites, giving players up-to-the-second updates, everyone will have more information in 2015. There’s going to be so much new “fish” blood that I think there’s an opportunity. The window may close quickly, but it’s not like I’m anticipating paying my mortgage here. I might throw down three figures, tops.

I signed up for an MFL10. My last two interviews were with MFL10 obsessives and I finally did it. All I did was join the current public league last night and I have a few leaguemate followers including the ultimate degenerate, Jersey Jen. I have the #7 pick which is nice because all my mocks to date have been around the turn. I finished in second in my only MFL10 last year and it was slightly devastating as I led the league most of the year. I’d like to do this one and maybe add another one every week or two so I can keep the finger on the pulse on my own downfall as we slide into another fantasy season.

If you’re going to play MFL10s, you should get Mike’s MFL10 ADP File. Also he’s doing auction best-ball leagues which just made my head explode.

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